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Thursday, May 31, 2007

HMIN selling at discount

I believe there's a good chance on HMIN again.

The company sold nearly 1.5 million ADS at $34.27 each on May 1, 2007 , a zero percent discount to the stock's last traded price. Those institution investors never had a chance to get out.

It closed on 29.47 today, a 14% discount of $34.27. If it would go to $27.5 sometimes later, it's a 20% discount or 27% for $25 per share.

If it would go that far I will be there. It's Jun next week. I would like to take the advantage of the final day of second quarter which mutual fund managers always have to make up the balance sheet.

There're some strange data in Q1 2007 when take a close look. 

-- Total revenues for the quarter increased 65.5 % year-over-year to RMB183.1 million (US$23.7 million).

-- Income from operations was RMB15.9 million (US$2.1 million), an increase of 24.9% year-over-year. Excluding share-based compensation charge, income from operations (non-GAAP) was RMB17.6 million (US$2.3 million), up 34.7% year-over-year.

-- EBITDA (non-GAAP), defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was RMB25.8 million (US$3.3 million), representing a 22.3% increase year-over-year. Excluding foreign exchange losses of RMB6.1 million (US$0.8 million) and share-based compensation expenses of RMB1.7 million (US$0.2 million), EBITDA (non-GAAP) was RMB33.7 million (US$4.4 million), up 56.6% year-over-year.

They made the losses of US$0.8 million and compensation expenses of US$0.2 minllion in Q1 which sould be one time expenses, otherwise the number would go like this: Revenues up 65.5% and net profit up 56.6%.

The first quarter is the worst season for hotel business in China because the whole country almost stop running for at lease 1 month when Chinese go back home town to celebrate the Chinese New Year.

It's a smart strategy to arrange Q1 as worst as possible so that it will "beat the street" easily in the coming quarters and next year.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

NCTY NTES

SNDA has a good run these few days. Some one promote Shanda Is A Smart Play so another paid gaming style company NCTY got hit. I think the reason of hot selling Chinese style "Free play game buy virtual access"  is because a game company named "Zhengtu" is about to IPO.

There's a good chance on NCTY . I hope it will fall more before Q1 announcement on May 21, 2007 at 9:00 PM, US Eastern Time.

NTES is another Chinese gaming company I like. It's cheap for 17.70.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

HANG SENG INDEX short selling Apr 2007

Apr is a positive month. There's no Sell-off signal.

The Mid-May 2007 data as follow. There's a Suspicious 2885 million on May 14. I will keep an eye on it.